In September, prices in Kenya were 6.8% higher than a year earlier, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reported on 30 September. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) had projected 6.5%.
That was not a one-off. Business Daily compared the CBK's forecasts with KNBS's prints and found the forecast missed in four of the last six months, over a period the paper dates from the start of the US and Israeli war on Iran, which drove up fuel costs. For anyone whose savings, loan or pay is set in shillings, the forecast is the central bank's own view of where prices are heading; the print is what they actually pay.
Forecasts against prints
| Month (2026) | CBK forecast | Inflation, KNBS |
|---|---|---|
| April | 4.8% | 5.59% |
| May | 5.7% | 6.68% |
| June | not reported | 6.41% |
| July | not reported | 6.49% |
| August | not reported | 6.59% |
| September | 6.5% | 6.76% |
| October | 6.9% | due from KNBS |
Sources: CBK forecasts as reported by Business Daily, 15 October 2026; 12-month inflation from the CBK's table of KNBS figures, read 20 October 2026. KNBS's own release rounds September to 6.8%.
The misses (Facts): Business Daily says the widest gaps were in April and May, when the print came in 0.8 and one percentage point above the forecast. In September the gap was 0.3 points. In all three, inflation was higher than forecast.
What pushed prices up
Fuel and food (Facts): KNBS says September's rise was driven mainly by food and non-alcoholic beverages, up 9.5% in a year, and transport, up 15.6%. The CBK said core inflation rose "mainly driven by higher prices for some processed food items, particularly milk, wheat products, and edible oils". Processed milk carries a 2.6% weight in the basket, Business Daily reported.
October's test (Facts): the latest pump-price review raised super petrol by KES 12.93 a litre, diesel by KES 9.90 and kerosene by KES 28.49, according to Business Daily.
What the CBK expects
Its projections (Facts): the CBK projects 6.9% for October and a peak of 7.2% in December 2026, easing to 4.8% by September 2027, on a baseline of $90 crude. Its worst case, crude above $110 a barrel, takes inflation to 8%, above the 7.5% top of its 2.5% to 7.5% target range. On 7 October the CBK held its rate at 8.75%.
What it means (Analysis): the CBK's own projections stay inside the range, but with little room. Prints have run above forecast in every miss Business Daily details, so a reader comparing October's KNBS figure with 6.9% is checking the same pattern.
What to watch
- KNBS's October inflation release, against the CBK's 6.9%.
- Crude prices against the CBK's $90 baseline and $110 worst case.
- Milk prices as the October to December rains arrive, which the CBK expects to ease the shortage.
- The next MPC meeting: its date is not yet in our calendar of CBK announcements.
Information, not advice.