On 1 October the Bank of Zambia sold one-year Treasury bills at 10.00%. A year earlier, on 2 October 2025, the same bill had cost the government 14.50%. On a ZMW 1m loan, that is roughly ZMW 45,000 a year less in interest: a saving for the Treasury, and a loss for whoever lends to it.
That 4.5-point fall is the biggest among the nine African markets whose bill auctions we record. It is also the clearest picture of what 2026 did to the price of local-currency government borrowing: in most places it fell, and in some it fell a long way.
But not everywhere, and not any more in all of them. In South Africa the one-year rate has risen at every auction since early August. In Egypt it is exactly where it was a year ago. Here is the map, and what we think comes next.
The one-year rate, nine markets
| Market | Latest one-year rate | A year earlier | Change (points) | Policy rate | Bill minus policy rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zambia | 10.00% (1 Oct) | 14.50% | −4.50 | 10.75% | −0.75 |
| Uganda | 11.50% (30 Sep) | 15.00% | −3.50 | not read | — |
| Ghana | 9.75% (9 Oct) | 12.87% | −3.12 | 14.00% | −4.25 |
| Kenya | 9.04% (12 Oct) | 9.39% | −0.35 | 8.75% | +0.29 |
| Mozambique | 12.09% (7 Oct) | 12.23% | −0.14 | 9.25% | +2.84 |
| Egypt | 25.67% (13 Oct) | 25.67% | 0.00 | 19.00% | +6.67 |
| Nigeria | 15.85% (7 Oct) | 15.77% | +0.08 | 26.50% | −10.65 |
| South Africa | 7.54% (5 Oct) | 6.95% | +0.59 | 7.25% | +0.29 |
| Tanzania | 6.28% (7 Oct) | 5.61% | +0.67 | 6.25% | +0.03 |
Each central bank's own auction results; policy rates as printed on each bank's site on 13 October 2026. Egypt's is the overnight deposit rate. Sources and method below.
Read down the last column and the continent splits into three groups.
Group one: the fall is done, for now
In Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania the one-year bill sits within 0.3 points of the policy rate. Lenders are not asking for much more than the central bank's own rate, and not accepting much less. (Analysis) That usually means the market expects little change either way.
Kenya shows how the fall ended. The one-year bill bottomed at 8.27% in April 2026, climbed back to 8.97% by late June, and has cleared between 8.99% and 9.07% at every auction since July. The Central Bank Rate printed on the CBK's site carries the date 7 October 2026 and reads 8.75%, the same figure that was dated 11 August.
South Africa is moving the other way. Its one-year bill has risen at every auction since 3 August, from 7.17% to 7.54% on 5 October, and now sits above the Reserve Bank's 7.25%.
Group two: the market is ahead of the central bank
In Ghana, Nigeria and Zambia the bill clears below the policy rate. Nigeria is the extreme case: the one-year bill cleared at 15.85% on 7 October, 10.65 points under the Central Bank of Nigeria's 26.50%. On 26 August it was 17.15%.
Ghana's one-year rate has fallen at eight weekly auctions in a row, from 12.50% on 14 August to 9.75%. Its 91-day bill cleared at 4.60% on 9 October, against a policy rate of 14.00%.
(Analysis) When lenders accept far less than the central bank's own rate, two readings are possible: they expect cuts, or they hold more cash than there are bills to buy. Our data shows the price, not the motive. Either way, a gap this wide tends to close one way or the other: the policy rate falls, or bill rates rise.
Group three: dear, and holding
Egypt pays 25.67%, unchanged on a year. Mozambique's one-year bill has cleared at 12.09% at every auction since 9 September, 2.84 points over the central bank's MIMO rate. Uganda's fell 3.50 points to 11.50%, but the Bank of Uganda does not publish its policy rate anywhere we can read automatically, so we cannot place it.
The long end has not followed
Kenya's bond due in 2034 (first sold in 2019 as a 15-year) cleared at 12.73% on 5 October, 3.70 points above the one-year bill. Nigeria's new 10-year bond cleared at 16.79% on 14 September. Uganda paid 16.93% for 20 years on 7 October; Zambia 15.45% for 15 years on 25 September.
(Analysis) Governments that want to stretch their debt out, rather than roll bills every few months, are still paying heavily for the privilege. That is the bill that matters most for budgets in 2027.
Where rates go into 2027: our view
These are scenarios, not forecasts of fact.
Our base case: the gaps close from the policy side. Ghana, Nigeria and Zambia cut towards where their bills already trade, so one-year rates there drift lower slowly rather than fall sharply again. Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa move sideways, close to their policy rates. By mid-2027 most one-year rates sit near today's bill levels, not today's policy rates.
Higher rates (good for savers, bad for borrowers). Dollar borrowing keeps getting dearer: the yield on Kenya's 2034 Eurobond rose from 7.96% on 14 August to 9.31% on 8 October, according to the CBK's weekly bulletin. If that pressure reaches local auctions, Kenya's one-year bill would climb back above 10%, a level last seen in June 2025, and South Africa's run of rises would continue.
Lower rates (good for borrowers, bad for savers). Central banks cut faster than bills already expect. Kenya's one-year bill would revisit its April low of 8.27%; Ghana's would go below 9%.
What would make us wrong: an exchange-rate or inflation shock. We do not yet track either, and both would show up there before they show up in auction results.
Signposts and dates
| Date | What | What to look for |
|---|---|---|
| Every week | Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, Egypt bill auctions | Kenya's one-year above 9.5% or below 8.5% |
| 18 Nov 2026 | Bank of Ghana decision | A cut towards the 9.75% bill rate |
| 19 Nov 2026 | South African Reserve Bank decision | Whether the rise in bills since August is matched |
| 25 Nov 2026 | Banco de Moçambique decision | Whether the 2.84-point bill premium narrows |
| 7 Jan 2027 | Bank of Tanzania decision | Bills have fallen since July; a cut would confirm |
| 28 Jan 2027 | South African Reserve Bank decision | Second read on the direction |
Kenya's next MPC date is not yet in our calendar; the CBK's two most recent meetings were on 11 August and 7 October. Nigeria, Uganda, Egypt and Zambia publish no forward calendar we can read.
How we worked this out
- One-year rates: the 364-day row of each market's file in
data/<market>/tbill_auctions.json(the latest auction, and the last auction on or before 13 October 2025). The measure is each bank's own headline rate: weighted average for Kenya, Ghana, Uganda, Tanzania, Egypt and Mozambique; the CBN's stop rate for Nigeria; the Bank of Zambia's cut-off yield; the SARB's average allotment rate. - Change: latest minus year-earlier, using the rates rounded to two decimals as shown. Zambia: 10.00 − 14.50 = −4.50. Ghana: 9.75 − 12.87 = −3.12.
- Bill minus policy rate: latest one-year rate minus the rate in
data/policy_rates.json(read 13 October 2026). Nigeria: 15.85 − 26.50 = −10.65. - Zambia interest on ZMW 1m: 1,000,000 × (14.50% − 10.00%) = ZMW 45,000.
- Kenya curve: bond FXD3/2019/015, due July 2034, at 12.73% (
data/kenya/bond_auctions.json, 5 October) minus the 9.04% one-year bill = 3.70 points. - Eurobond:
data/eurobonds.json, Kenya 2034 maturity, 7.96% on 14 August and 9.3053% on 8 October. - Meeting dates:
data/mpc_calendar.json, each quoted from the bank's own page. Malawi is left out: its auction data is overdue in our health check.
Every auction is free to check, with the notice it came from: bill rates across Africa and policy rates and meeting dates.
Information, not advice.