AFRONOMICS INVESTMENT COMMITTEE PACK · NIGERIA

Nigeria’s cost of money, the region, and the month ahead

October 2026 · prepared 5 Oct 2026 for Sample committee. Compiled from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s auction results, nine other central banks, the daily FX reference and the Afronomics index. Every figure carries its source.

Information, not advice. Figures as published by each source on the dates shown; Afronomics compiles and does not forecast. Sample pack, free to share.

1. Nigeria: Treasury bills

Stop rate · Central Bank of Nigeria
15.89%364-day, 23 Sept 2026
−7.12real yield after inflation (2025)
5.06×bids to amount offered, last 90 days
7 Octnext result expected
TenorRate1m1y12 monthsLatest
91-day15.50%−80+5023 Sept 2026
182-day15.80%−70+5023 Sept 2026
364-day15.89%−95−8923 Sept 2026

The rate is the stop (issue) rate at the primary auction. 1m and 1y: change in basis points against the auction closest to one month and one year earlier.

What it means for NGN 1,000,000

Put NGN 1,000,000 into the 364-day bill at this auction and you get back NGN 1,158,900 after 12 months: NGN 158,900 in interest before any withholding tax, about NGN 13,242 a month. That is NGN 7,300 less than the same money would have earned at the previous auction.

Nigeria in the ASBI

Nigeria ranks 3 of 10 markets by one-year rate, contributing 15.89% against an index of 12.33% (week of 5 Oct 2026).

The NGN against the dollar

1331.28 per dollar on 5 Oct 2026, −0.30% over the month (positive = stronger).

2. Ten African markets

as of 5 Oct 2026
Market91-day1m182-day1m364-day1m364-day, 12 monthsLatest
Egypt24.56%+4325.51%+525.67%+6829 Sept 2026
Ghana4.68%−1116.37%−1329.83%−31328 Sept 2026
Kenya8.77%±08.89%−59.04%+15 Oct 2026
Malawi12.00%±014.50%−5016.00%±029 Sept 2026
Mozambique12.11%±012.15%−412.09%−51 Oct 2026
Nigeria15.50%−8015.80%−7015.89%−9523 Sept 2026
South Africa6.93%+137.52%+367.50%+2728 Sept 2026
Tanzania3.39%−15.29%+236.29%−3623 Sept 2026
Uganda9.75%±010.00%±011.00%±03 Sept 2026
Zambia8.50%−2009.10%−17510.00%−1901 Oct 2026

Real yields on one-year bills

Market364-dayInflationReal
Egypt25.67%14.1% 2025+11.60
Mozambique12.09%4.4% 2025+7.72
Uganda11.00%3.6% 2025+7.42
Kenya9.04%4.1% 2025+4.97
South Africa7.50%3.2% 2025+4.29
Tanzania6.29%3.3% 2025+2.96
Zambia10.00%13.9% 2025−3.91
Ghana9.83%14.2% 2025−4.37
Nigeria15.89%23.0% 2025−7.12
Malawi16.00%28.4% 2025−12.37

Afronomics African Sovereign Bill Index

12.33% for the week of 5 Oct 2026, −7 bps w/w, −228 bps y/y.

#Market364-dayw/wDate
1Egypt25.67%+2129 Sept 2026
2Malawi16.00%±029 Sept 2026
3Nigeria15.89%±023 Sept 2026
4Mozambique12.09%±030 Sept 2026
5Uganda11.00%±03 Sept 2026
6Zambia10.00%−901 Oct 2026
7Ghana9.83%±028 Sept 2026
8Kenya9.04%±05 Oct 2026
9South Africa7.50%±028 Sept 2026
10Tanzania6.29%±023 Sept 2026

3. Currencies and the month ahead

daily reference, archived by Afronomics

Against the dollar, one month

CurrencyNowMonth agoChange
Kenya shilling KES129.58129.68+0.08%
Nigerian naira NGN1331.281327.24−0.30%
South African rand ZAR16.658616.4069−1.51%
Ghanaian cedi GHS11.617311.7012+0.72%
Egyptian pound EGP52.247552.0920−0.30%
Ugandan shilling UGX3932.953830.61−2.60%
Tanzanian shilling TZS2647.632615.17−1.23%
Zambian kwacha ZMW19.746719.5612−0.94%
Malawian kwacha MWK1745.261747.53+0.13%
Mozambican metical MZN63.838563.7815−0.09%
Rwandan franc RWF1478.711476.65−0.14%
Ethiopian birr ETB161.51162.45+0.58%
West African CFA franc XOF583.03578.23−0.82%
Moroccan dirham MAD9.91959.6647−2.57%

Positive change means the currency strengthened against the dollar.

Next auction results expected

MarketExpectedRhythm
Ghana5 Oct 2026every 7 days · last 28 Sept
South Africa5 Oct 2026every 7 days · last 28 Sept
Egypt6 Oct 2026every 7 days · last 29 Sept
Malawi6 Oct 2026every 7 days · last 29 Sept
Nigeria7 Oct 2026every 14 days · last 23 Sept
Tanzania7 Oct 2026every 14 days · last 23 Sept
Mozambique8 Oct 2026every 7 days · last 1 Oct
Kenya12 Oct 2026every 7 days · last 5 Oct
Uganda15 Oct 2026every 14 days · last 3 Sept
Zambia15 Oct 2026every 14 days · last 1 Oct

Projected from each central bank’s auction rhythm, not an official calendar.